A mere two months in the past when the young forward stood on the Stadium of Light pitch, appearing bewildered while his coach admonished him over not reading a penetrating pass. During that period, as the club went six without a win, the question was if his displays were a symptom or a cause of the side's more general malaise.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
On Sunday, however, the sideline response proved to be decidedly more positive. When Rogers swept in his second to restore Villa's lead, the Spanish tactician discarded his coat, threw his arms wide and shouted in triumph. The Birmingham club marched on to ten wins in a row and despite not winning any of their first six matches, are somehow only three points behind pace-setters Arsenal.
Are They Genuine Challengers?
That’s a particularly tough query to address. History, a general sense of this institution, indicates otherwise. Furthermore, they have not been entirely convincing during this run, despite the fact the positive results have piled up.
Per the data, in only two games have Villa registered an expected goals figure notably superior than the opposition. For a club who have just won a ten-match winning streak, the Villans look weirdly vulnerable – however right now the tight outcomes are falling their way.
The Winning Formula
The prevailing tactic looks like to trade blows with the opposition before hoping Rogers to rescue them with a couple of crisp finishes. This occurred against Leeds, it occurred against West Ham, and once more when facing Manchester United.
Rogers' first goal came from an exquisite effort, bent right inside the goal frame from a wide position. His brace-completing goal proved to be a slightly less clean iteration of goal number one capitalizing on a pass from Watkins.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Reason suggests otherwise. Against United, the opponents had more shots and more efforts on goal. They have secured their last eight victories by the narrowest of margins. They have allowed goals in all but one of those games.
Regression to the mean may well be the biggest rival they must confront in the near future. The forward, in all likelihood, will not continue to thrashing his shots into the net's top corner week in, week out.
Reasons for Optimism
Maybe there exists an alternative path in which, rather than results trending towards performances, performances begin to trend towards results. Important figures could still rediscover their best form.
- The main striker may begin to adding to his goal tally.
- The winger might become the force he showed in Germany.
- The defensive duo are set to return from injury, bolstering an occasionally vulnerable backline.
Maybe within that lies the possibility for a sustained push, but they surely cannot keep relying on one man.
Relishing the Unlikely
However, this is a surprise. Nobody thought Villa would sit third at Christmas. And without a doubt earlier this season, nobody thought the midfielder by the end of the year would be at the forefront of a title charge while establishing himself as an essential Three Lions star.
This winning streak should be enjoyed exactly since it feels so unlikely. As Rogers stood in front of the home supporters after the match leading the celebrations, he appeared to be loving the experience. A feeling he has rightly earned. These spells are uncommon in the sport and should be relished.
