Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that split the nation and caused disorder, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the lack of serious debate, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer endorses unification or the status quo. Each writes two essays that seek neutrality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, levies, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate report they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to recognise unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government must work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his era is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will eventually be defeated but both parties has has important lessons to learn from the other's positions."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
